Monday, March 30, 2015

Who Has A Stake In Yemen Fight

Source:
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/news/2015/03/mil-150328-rferl01.htm?_m=3n%2e002a%2e1379%2eka0ao00b2h%2e19l2

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/war/yemen4.htm






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              Who Has A Stake In Yemen Fight


March 28, 2015
by Michael Scollon



Yemen is at the center of a proxy war between regional heavyweights Iran and Saudi Arabia. It's the source of fears of a broader Sunni-Shi'ite conflict. And it has implications far beyond its borders.

Here is a look at the stakeholders in the fight.​​


The Playing Field


The Yemen conflict is a tale of twos:


Two leaders: Former President Ali Abdullah Saleh (a Shi'a), who was replaced amid the Arab Spring uprising by his deputy, current President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi (a Sunni)
Two regions: North Yemen and South Yemen, which merged in 1990, with Saleh as president
Two capitals: Sanaa in the north, and Aden in the south

Two branches of Islam: Yemen is more than 99 percent Muslim, of which 65 percent are Sunnis of the Shafi'i school of thought, and 35 percent are Shi'as of the Zaydi school.
Two powerful extremist groups: The Huthis are Shi'ite rebels who first took control over north Yemen, forcing President Hadi to flee, expanded their control through most of the country, and are now moving on his refuge in Aden.

On March 27, the group put a bounty on Hadi's head, and used the Yemeni Air Force it largely controls (with Saleh's help) to strike Aden, forcing Hadi to go into hiding. The Sunni militant group Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is the most active Al-Qaeda franchise, controls large areas of north-central Yemen, and is pitted against the Yemeni government, Saudi Arabia, the Huthis, southern separatists and, ultimately, the United States.

Two regional backers: Iran supports the Huthis, materially and militarily; Saudi Arabia backs the Yemeni government headed by Hadi, and on March 25 led air strikes involving 10 Arab countries against Huthi rebels, leading Tehran to denounce the intervention.




Sunni Solidarity

The countries involved in the Saudi-led air strikes are Sunni, underscoring broader Sunni solidarity centered on Gulf Arab countries but which extends to Egypt, Sudan, Pakistan, and Turkey, among others.

Yemen will be the main topic of discussion at an Arab League summit in Sharm-el Sheikh, Egypt, this weekend, and Hadi will attend. Aside from participants' role in the current Yemen intervention, the gathering of foreign ministers may move closer to establishing a joint Arab military force. The idea has been spearheaded by Egypt and the Gulf states as a way of combating terrorism and staving off Iranian influence.

Saudi Arabia has deployed about 100 aircraft in the Yemen intervention, dubbed Storm of Resolve, and planes from Egypt, Morocco, Jordan, Sudan, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain are also contributing.

Saudi Arabia is also is contributing as many as 150,000 troops to the campaign, and Egypt, Jordan, and Pakistan have expressed their readiness to take part in a ground offensive as well.
Sudan, which has had traditionally good relations with Tehran, also said it was ready to send ground troops.


Oil Prices

Global oil prices immediately surged on news of Saudi Arabian-led strikes in Yemen.
Benchmark Brent crude prices rose nearly 6 percent on March 26 (to near $60 a barrel), before easing a little due to fears that the military intervention could spark a broader regional conflict and disrupt oil supplies. On March 27, prices fell more than $1 a barrel (midday low $57.76) after Goldman Sachs said the Yemen campaign would have little effect on global oil supplies.
In kind, global stock indexes dipped, including the U.S. Dow Jones (down 0.6 percent) and London's FTSE (down 1.2 percent).
Saudi Arabia, the largest oil producer in the Middle East, has been a central figure in the global fall in oil prices that began in 2014. Oil accounted for some 90 percent of Saudi Arabia's budget in 2013, according to Reuters, yet Riyadh has steadfastly refused to cut production to buoy prices.

Iran has characterized the fall in oil prices as the result of a Saudi and U.S. conspiracy against Tehran, whose oil income has been hurt by sanctions over its contentious nuclear program, and Russia, which relies heavily on oil income and is at odds with the West over its intervention in eastern Ukraine.



Russia

Moscow, which stands to gain from any rise in oil prices, has been working the phones and playing the peacemaker role since the Saudi-led air strikes began.
On March 27, Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and 'expressed concern over the escalation of tensions in Yemen,' according to the Kremlin press service. He also stressed the importance of 'intensifying international efforts to achieve a peaceful and lasting settlement of the situation in the country.'
In a telephone conversation with Iranian President Hassan Rohani on March 26, Putin called for the 'immediate cessation of hostilities' in Yemen -- read by the Iranian press as a call for Saudi Arabia to halt its intervention -- and also expressed satisfaction with progress made in the ongoing nuclear negotiations between Iran and the six world powers.
The negotiators are entering the end game of talks aimed at meeting a March 31 deadline to come up with a framework agreement over Iran's nuclear program.



Iran

As Tehran tries to cut a nuclear deal in Switzerland that will result in sanctions relief and allow it to pursue a peaceful nuclear program, it must fend off criticism of a possible deal from regional players Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Netanyahu has been openly critical of the talks, which he argues are not going far enough to ensure that Iran cannot acquire nuclear weapons, and has raised the alarm about Iran's growing influence in the region.
Riyadh has expressed its own concerns about Iran's encroachment in the region and has sparked fears of a nuclear arms race by saying that any deal that allows Iran to enrich uranium will lead Saudi Arabia to seek the same.
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, who is also Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, on March 26 demanded an 'immediate stop to the Saudi military operations in Yemen.' He was also quoted by the Arabic-language al-Alam news network as saying Iran would 'spare no effort to contain the crisis in Yemen.'


Turkey

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is scheduled to visit Iran in April, has been outspoken in his criticism of Tehran's role in Yemen.

'Iran and the terrorist groups must withdraw,' he told France 24 on March 27, alluding to Huthi militants.

'We support Saudi Arabia's intervention,' Erdogan said, adding that Turkey 'may consider providing logistical support based on the evolution of the situation.'

On March 27, Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif responded to earlier remarks by Erdogan in which he accused Iran of trying to dominate the Middle East.

'The Islamic Republic of Iran is ready for cooperation with its brothers in the region to facilitate dialogue between various groups in Yemen to maintain unity and return stability and security in that country,' Fars quoted Zarif as saying.



Iraq

Iraq finds itself in a tricky balancing act. It is relying on Iranian-backed militias to help beat back an incursion by the hard-core Sunni Islamic State group on the ground, and U.S. air support to strike IS from above.

This week, the United States agreed to conduct air strikes in support of Baghdad's effort to retake the Sunni-stronghold Tikrit. Once Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani and his Iran-loyal militias had left the scene, U.S.-led air strikes followed.

During the Arab League summit in Egypt this weekend, Iraq can also expect to hear calls for its participation in the establishment of a joint Arab military force, an idea it has been reluctant to endorse because of its ties to Iran.


United States

Yemen, once a poster child of success for Washington, now adds to the complex challenges facing the United States in the Middle East.

On the one hand, the United States is in the unlikely position of being on the same side as Iran in fighting IS in Iraq.

But in Syria -- where it is also targeting IS -- Washington is arming some of the groups fighting the Iran- and Russia-backed regime of Bashar al-Assad.

And now, the United States finds itself backing (not yet militarily, but with logistical and intelligence support) longtime ally Saudi Arabia against Iran-backed militants in Yemen.
All this at a time when Washington is trying to seal a nuclear deal with Iran.

Source: http://www.rferl.org/content/who-has-a-stake-in-yemen-fight/26925287.html

Copyright (c) 2015. RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave., N.W. Washington DC 20036.









Further Reading


Yemen Civil War (2011-201?)

By early 2015, Yemen was pretty much a failed state, beset by a circular firing squad of factions. Besides a local struggle for power, the Yemen conflict is widely viewed as a proxy war between Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shia Iran. Yemen was wracked by internal divisions as the Houthi movement spread beyond its traditional rebellion in the north, separatists continue to press their cause in the south, and al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula claims attacks both at home and abroad, including on the satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo in Paris earlier in January 2015.

  1. Shia rebels loyal to Abdul Malik al-Houthi are also known as the Shabab Al-Mu'minin (Believing Youth). In September 2014, Houthi fighters swept into the capital and they continued to battle for control of other parts of Yemen. The Houthis are a group of combatants associated with the Zaydi Revivalist movement in Yemen, which emerged as a result of deep-seated frustrations among those tribes who felt as though they had become marginalized after an Egyptian-backed revolution against the Zaydi Imam in 1962 brought an end to Hashemite domination. The Houthis operated alongside allies of former president and former adversary, Ali Abdullah Saleh, toppled in 2011. 
  2. President Ali Abdullah Saleh had been in power for 30 years until ousted in 2011. Ali Abdullah Saleh was a Zaidi Shiite, but had the support of key Sunni leaders, and his Vice President was a Sunni Muslim. Saleh retained influence among Zaidi tribes - from which the Houthis belong - in the north and top military commanders. By 2015 Houthis appeared to have major backing from Saleh, their long time adversary. Together they formed the so-called “Popular Committees”, militias that controlled much of northern Yemen. The bulk of the January 2015 fighting against the Hadi governement was led by the Republican Guard, the elite military unit led until 2013 by Ahmed Ali Saleh, the eldest son of the ousted president. Just exactly how and when these former opponents became allies is obscure.
  3. President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi was elected in 2012. He is supported by the international community and as a Sunni continued to have the backing of the Sunni majority in Yemen. He was widely seen as weak and inefficient. The Presidential Guard was the only military unit still loyal to the internationally recongnized government of President Hadi. President Hadi, Prime Minister Khaled Bahah and his Cabinet tendered their resignations 22 January 2015. Under Yemen's constitution, the speaker of parliament would serve as interim head of state. The current speaker, Yahia al-Rai, is an ally of former president Ali Abdullah Saleh. By March 2015 the president of Yemen controlled barely a quarter of Yemen. 
  4. Islah, the Islamist opposition party, is generally considered moderate, but contains radical members of the Salafi and Muslim Brotherhood factions. Although not party policy, per se, powerful individuals within Islah have made targeting Zaydis a major objective. Fighters from the conservative Islamist forces loyal to military general Ali Mohsen Al Ahmar of the Islah Party are backed by the Saudis.
  5. The Herak group of Southern separatists are seeking a two-region division between the former North Yemen (Yemen Arab Republic) and South Yemen (Republic of Yemen), as a precursor to full secession. The Houthis found common ground with the separatists, and support a two-region state in which they could dominate the north and consolidate territorial gains secured during 2014.
  6. Al-Qa‘ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) is a Sunni extremist group based in Yemen that orchestrated numerous high-profile terrorist attacks. AQAP emerged in January 2009 following an announcement that Yemeni and Saudi terrorists were unifying under a common banner. AQAP took control of Zinjibar and other areas in Abyan, Lahj, and Shabwah governorates in 2011 and held these locations for approximately one year until a government offensive drove them out in June 2012.
  7. The Yemeni army avoided clashing with the Houthis or to support them in their advance on al-Qaida strongholds. The army fought a number of campaigns against the Houthi in the 2004-2009 timeframe, and did not give a good account of itself. President Ali Abdullah Saleh had exercised tight control over the army, and its apparent neutrality in the conflict after his 2011 departure may reflect his continued influence. President Hadi released a list of military and political appointments on April 6, 2012 that struck at Saleh’s patronage network.


Yemen Civil War 2015 Yemen Civil War 2015 Yemen Civil War 2015 Yemen Civil War 2015 Yemen Civil War 2015 Yemen Civil War 2015 Yemen Civil War 2015

 

Yemen Civil War - 2015

Yemen's government and Houthi rebels declared a cease-fire 19 January 2015, which appeared to be taking hold in the capital Sana'a after a day of sporadic fighting. A cease-fire was agreed upon during a meeting of representatives of the Huthi militia and the Yemen defense and interior ministers. A few hours later Houthi rebels seized the presidential compound and attacked the president's home in Sana'a, in the latest attack targeting leadership in the country.
By 21 January 2015 President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi remained surrounded by Houthi militiamen in his residence, a day after the group captured the presidential palace. Hadi was expected to yield to demands for constitutional change and power-sharing with Houthi rebels. Ministers of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), who support Hadi and oppose Iranian influence in the region, denounced what they called terrorist acts by the Houthis and their allies.


The Houthis were demanding 50 percent of key ministerial positions as part of an earlier power-sharing agreement. The Houthis appeared to have decided to stop short of overthrowing Hadi, possibly preferring to keep the enfeebled leader at their mercy rather than claim the burden of seizing power. The Houthis also insist 1,000 of their fighters be incorporated in the army and 1,000 more in the police. The new constitution would see Yemen divided into six federally-administered regions, which both the Houthis and southern separatists believe would weaken their power.


Public officials in the southern Yemeni capital of Aden reportedly raised the flag of the former Republic of South Yemen over government buildings and police checkpoints. Leaders in at least five provinces indicated that they will no longer take orders from officials in Sana'a. The old land border between North and South Yemen was closed to stop Houthi militiamen from advancing into the south of the country.
Yemen's powerful Shi'ite rebels finalized their takeover of the country 06 February 2015. The Houthi's revolutionary committee would chose an interim national assembly, replacing the old parliament. The new 551-members assembly would chose a five member presidential council to govern the county.


On February 20, 2015 Yemen's feuding parties agreed on a "people's transitional council" to help govern the country and guide it out of a political crisis. The existing lower house, dominated by lawmakers supportive of the Houthis, would remain in place. A “people’s transitional council” would be created as an upper legislative chamber. That council would comprised of Houthis as well as other groups underrepresented in the traditional Parliament, including young people, women and people from southern Yemen. The distribution would give 50 percent to members from the northern governorates and 50 percent to the Southern provinces with a 30 percent quota for women and 20 percent for youth representatives.
Saudi Arabia's foreign minister said 23 March 2015 that Arab states would take "necessary measures" against Yemen's Houthi rebels if a peaceful solution cannot be found to end their fight against the government of President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi. Saud al-Faisal said that Arab countries would try "to protect the region from aggression" and he condemned what he called Iranian "interference" in Yemen. Faisal insisted the only solution in Yemen was for the country's "legitimate government to be allowed to exercise its authority and for Houthi rebels to evacuate all government institutions they have occupied."




 

Operation Determined Storm

Warplanes from Saudi Arabia and its allies bombed key Yemen military installations seized by the Shi'ite Muslim rebels seeking to overthrow Yemen's president. The attacks on the Houthi rebels, which began 25 March 2015 at the urging of internationally backed Yemeni leader Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, drew angry reaction from Iran and raised fears across the region. Iran supports the Houthi rebels, who follow a similar form of Shia Islam. The Islamic Its foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, told Iranian TV that "the Saudi-led airstrikes should stop immediately, because it is against Yemen's sovereignty."


Several other Gulf states also have joined in the military operation. Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates issued a joint statement with the Saudis saying they were protecting Yemen against "Houthi aggression." In Egypt, Arab foreign ministers meeting in the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh agreed on a draft resolution to form a joint military force, according to Arab League Secretary General Nabil Elaraby. The development came as the Arab League pledged full support for the Saudi-led campaign in Yemen.
Jordan, Egypt and Sudan confirmed their forces were taking part in the airstrike campaign. The state-run Saudi Press Agency said Morocco had pledged to join as well, while the Saudi-owned al-Arabiya network said Saudi Arabia itself was committing 150,000 troops and 100 warplanes.

Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif promised a "strong response" to any threat to Saudi Arabia's integrity. Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan told France 24 television that Turkey “may consider providing logistical support based on the evolution of the situation.... Iran and the terrorist groups must withdraw from Yemen".


The White House said the United States is coordinating with the Saudi-led military coalition and providing "logistical and intelligence support," but not taking direct military action.
Yemeni President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi arrived in Saudi Arabia on March 26 at a Riyadh air base and was met by the Saudi defense minister. Hadi, a close US ally, fled Yemen as rebel fighters neared his refuge in the southern city of Aden on March 25.

Pakistan — Saudi Arabia's longtime ally — said 27 March 2015 it has not yet decided to join the coalition. Defense Minister Khawaja Asif told parliament Islamabad is ready to defend Saudi Arabia's territorial integrity "at any cost," but does not want to involve itself in a sectarian war.


The coalition said 28 March 2015 it was in full control of Yemen's airspace after destroying almost all ground-to-air missiles in the Houthis' arsenal around Aden and Sana'a. Reports from Aden itself, however, told of chaotic conditions on the ground, with looters pillaging government facilities and some Yemeni troops switching their allegiance to the rebels.





























 

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